Muammar Faisal Kholi *
The diplomatic and military effort of the administration of US President Donald Trump aims, which is concentrated on Iraq in parallel with its engagement increasingly in the war on Daesh in the last curve, to provide the appropriate environment for the participation of the United States of America actively to arrange its positions in the stage of Iraq after Daesh and re-distribution the map of influence inside it towards restricting the Iranian role and limit its effects. Iraq is of great importance in American strategic Perception so it is simply greater than the risk of failing to take place.
It contains today the fourth largest population in the Middle East.
If you are tired of the suffering of 23 million citizens in Syria, or if you worry about the influx of displaced people and a safe haven for terrorists inside the country, try to imagine how much worse the situation will be if you add 36 million Iraqis into the equation.
This was about to happen when the organization Daesh dominated the one-third of Iraq in June 2014, but it has been avoided, primarily thanks to the Iraqi counter attack with the help of the international coalition led by the United States. Iraq will be divided again, and another risk will appear similar to Daesh, unless the United States remains engaged in that country.
Iraq also has the fifth-largest oil reserves in the world. Imagine if this wealth fell in the hands of an anti-Western regime and supported by Iran, which in turn owns the fourth largest oil reserves in the world.
The new US administration has deliberately directed “warning” to Iran for its support for the forces of proxy and expands their influence which destabilize throughout the Middle East.
There is no country in the Middle East in which this conflict is more urgent than it is in Iraq. Since the US withdrawal from Iraq in Decembe 2011, the Iranian influence has been increased significantly. Iraqi Shiite armed factions backed by Iran implements its own foreign policy, and operate as an Iranian foreign militias in Syria.
And some of these agents, like Hezbollah Brigades and the League of the Righteous (Asaib ahl-Haq ), rename themselves as «units of popular crowd», a volunteer in the war against Daesh, but the real goal is to continue the fighting to the post of the liberation of Mosul and the formation of an Iraqi permanent branch for «IRGC» of Iran.
If the moderate politicians are weakened in Iraq, such as Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi by these Iranian agents, and Iraq will return and sliding slowly into a civil war such as those taking place in Syria.
Daesh or its successor will fill this vacuum. Iraq would lose all its gains from the past two years, and Iranian agents will push the United States out of Iraq – and will therefore be the loss of the ability to prevent directly the re-emergence of a new safe haven for terrorists in the heart of the Middle East.
From this importance, the diplomatic and military features of a multi-faceted US effort are becoming more clear to contain Iraq.
On the diplomatic side, President Donald administration supports the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Abadi, knowing his firm need for such support in the face of severe pressure inflicted on him by senior symbols of Shiite political family on which he belongs and known of their affiliation to Iran and their eagerness to secure its interests and protect its influence in Iraq.
The latest letter of support from the United States to Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi was in the last March through a telephone call, received from US President Donald Trump, the prime minister’s office said in a statement that it was a talk “to strengthen relations between the two countries in various fields, the victories achieved against Daesh, and international support for Iraq in the fight against terrorism.” The statement quoted Trump as telling Ebadi that “cooperation between the two countries must continue, especially in the military field,” and this fine diplomatic discourse is far from Donald Trump impulsive speech and uncompromising towards everyone, including the closest allies of the United States which includes Iraq earlier, while Trump said during his election campaign that it should be to seize Iraqi oil.
The diplomatic discourse of the administration of US President Donald Trump towards Iraq is – without any doubt –made by circles of thinking and decision making that are planning for a long-term srategic action to contain this rich country with a very important strategic location , which makes it a center of a fierce regional and international conflict .
In parallel with the US diplomatic effort concentrated on Iraq, the United States embarked on securing a military presence on Iraqi territory, to correct what Donald Trump management sees as a mistake to withdraw from the country and handed it over to Iran after spending “trillions of dollars” on the invasion and overthrow the former regime. War on the organization Daesh represents an opportunity to secure the military return. The former US President Barack Obama’s administration is often blamed for the “brilliant success” achieved by the organization Daesh in Iraq in June 2014 due to its failure to secure the presence of US forces in Iraq after 2011.
And that the occupation Daesh of Iraqi Lands including large provinces and cities in 2014 and control over approximately half of the area of Iraq has become a key of re-occupation again because the remaining of US forces after the withdrawal are not large military forces, but a range of concentrations charged with fighting armed groups, and with the occupation of Daesh and its expansion , the US intervention was not a real and serious in dealing with it and his activities were confined to the review missions to hit the organization Daesh, and apparently the United States of America, which was delayed in support of the Government of Haider al-Abadi against al Daesh have many strategic reasons, including:
1-the desire of the United States to teach Iraq a lesson for refusing to establish US military bases on its territory.
- In its quest to highlight the weakness of the Iranian military effort and the inability of Tehran and Baghdad to find air firepower and intelligence to contain progress of Daesh.
- The desire to surrender of Iraqi administration for all their requests that will come later.
The US move against al Daesh in Iraq came in response to the following data:
First: Former US President Barack Obama intervened to protect the Kurdish entity (semi – independent) of the fall, because it represents a strategic importance to US interests.
Second, Obama’s intervention came a few hours after the announcement of major Western oil companies (Exxon Mobil, Chevron, the Norway DNO, and Turkish Genel) to withdraw its staff from northern Iraq because of progress Daesh, which means a direct impact on oil supplies.
Third: The fall of the Kurdish region opens the way to Daesh to threaten neighboring countries, in the east and north of Iraq, what turns it into a regional direct risk to the vital interests of the US.
Fourth: The fall of the strategic Mosul Dam specifically represents the culmination for the « continuous conquests of Daesh forces» _at that time _ without a real challenge in Syria and Iraq, what would encourage the targeting of Baghdad, which was threatening for the massacres and streets war that could last for months, and Iraq will be ended with it as we have known forever.
Fifth: The US air strikes may fail to achieve its goals as the face of Daesh requires to put US troops on the ground, which was rejected by Obama to avoid repeating of the sin of his predecessor, George W. Bush, who is primarily responsible for the entry of al – Qaeda and its sisters from armed groups to Iraq, along with the US intervention has become lacking any popular because of the war crimes committed by the Marines during their occupation of Iraq.
After all these data, the United States sent military forces gradually to Iraq, starting in mid-2014 and called it the name : ( Operation Inherent Resolve to terrorism), described by the Americans as it is to help Iraq in the fight against terrorism through the advisory and training support to Iraqi forces. The number of US troops in Iraq is currently almost 6,000 troops, while its number were 5262 soldiers under the Obama administration. In the context of the US military support to Iraq, officials at the US Department of Defense said that the army in the process of sending two additional military units to Mosul in which its numbers are ranging between 200 and 300 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division; in order to “provide further advice and assistance in the operation of the liberation of Mosul.
The ministry also says it is preparing to send a additional thousand troops from the same division to provide advice and assistance in Mosul if the need arises. For the 82 division, there are about 1,700 troops in Iraq and Kuwait who are providing logistical support to Iraqi forces.
There are also nearly 1,000 US troops currently in Syria, providing assistance for “democratic forces of Syria.” The US army on the last March 22 has carried out an operation of airdrops of fighters from the “democratic forces of Syria” near the Tabaqah of the Syrian city of Raqqa province. US forces also stepped up strikes against “Daesh”, where the aircrafts carrier “USS George HW Bush” arrived to the Arabian Gulf and from which planes began to launch air strikes.
US forces are also providing artillery support to its allies in both Syria and Iraq.
It seems to talk about a significant increase in the number of US soldiers serving in Iraq; it did not come from a vacuum. In practice, the US military completed all the requirements for the establishment of a temporary military base near the al-Rutba area, which lies about 400 kilometers west of the city of Ramadi, Anbar province, and this base will form a center for the operations aimed at securing the international road linking Iraq with both Jordan and Syria.
The fighters of Hezbollah Brigades and the Badr Organization, the pro- Iran, dominated on large parts of the international road in particular the main joints linking the capital of Baghdad to Anbar province.
The US military will also seek to contain a plan implemented by the popular crowd, and aimed at the establishment of camps in three locations in the vicinity of Al-Anbar province, from the eastern and Western North and western sides, in anticipation of any future “Sunni insurgency” in this province, which is classified since 2003 as hot ones.
The suspicious movements of popular crowd in Anbar raises the ire of Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, but he could not contain it at all because of the breadth of the area of this province and the nature of the desert and preoccupation of the Iraqi forces with the battle of Mosul, so Americans may assume this role.
And military advisers from the Danish army under the supervision of a US military are working to train and arming 2500 fighters from Anbar in Ein al-Asad base west of the province.
It is expected that this force is working alongside US forces in securing the desert areas of Anbar.
It is clear from all that there is a real interest by the United States stationed in Iraq’s western and eastern regions of Syria, the fact that these areas represent a key of trapping keys of the Iranian influence through the creation of “bridging” prevents free communication between Tehran and Damascus through Iraqi territories.
On the other hand, leaders in the forces of popular crowd are speaking about the need for a “military coup” in Iraq to wrest the rule from the Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, who is facing a fierce campaign accusing him of “absolute dependency of the United States”.
This reflects the amount of concern of senior Shiite leaders of armed factions of a crowd of the remarkable convergence between the Abadi and administration of US President Donald Trump, a concern that is expressing in essence, about Iran’s position that stand behind those leaders, and are suspicious of him to become “tool” for the US to encircle its influence in Iraq.
According to Aous Khafaji, a leader of Abolfazl Abbas platoon , a faction of the crowd, which is active in fighting alongside Bashar al-Assad’s forces in Syria, as well as its fight against al Daesh in Iraq, said the military coup and isolate the government of al-Abadi, is the only way to restore the Iraqi decision which is seized by Washington.
And “accused” Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi for the deployment of thousands of American soldiers in a number of locations inside Iraq, especially eastern Diyala province near the border with Iran, and western Anbar province, the border with Syria and Jordan.
The tension is prevailing on the relationship between the number of leaders of armed factions who are well known of their affiliation to Iran and prime minister since the last return from a visit to the United States, the leak of information that he during which promised President Trump to dissolve the forces of the popular crowd. So there is a concern of Iran for accelerated steps of convergence between the Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and the US administration led by Donald Trump, as it entails risks to Iranian influence in Iraq.
Reports indicate that Iraq was the focus of the deal in the US nuclear deal with Iran, including the return of the United States to Iraq with military bases fixed in the (Sunni) areas, which suffers from the control of Daesh, in addition to the growing Russian role in the region through the Syrian gate. And the Russia have fixed military bases after the deployment of missile system “S 400” inside Syrian territory, so the United States has become in an urgent need for a military presence on the ground in the Syrian neighborhood, specifically in Ramadi, Iraq and northern Mosul, the borders of which explains the US military presence and coalition forces (Canadian and French) on the ground in areas near Syria, and the other development is the Iranian declaration before the battle of Mosul about their intentions to create a line connects Iran to Syria through Mosul and Tal Afar, Aleppo, and this will affect the interests of the United States and the West.
Another possibility for the causes of re-US military presence is the preparation to move forward with the possibility of dividing Iraq into three states, a Sunni in the west and the Kurdish in the north and Shiite in the south.
Rawabet Research and Strategic Studies Center
Translated by: Mudhaffar al-Kusairi