Iraq has become a pivotal state in the Arab, regional and Middle Eastern environment, with an international presence since the date of the ninth of April – 2003, and it is home to the influence of great powers like the USA and regional like the Iranian regime , these two countries, and due to the levels of material strength and non-material, they did not hesitate to intervene to the smallest details of the political, security and economic scene , which was not surprising in the light of the situation that the US occupation of Iraq led to it, as it has resulted in the existence of a fragile and helpless state (failed state), and also a presence of the conflicting parties and forces , in which their political calculations were based on the conviction that the settlement of the internal fighting is not possible without external support, not to mention that the sectarian and ethnic dimensions, which were constantly present in the majority of the Iraqi crisis , and has strengthened foreign interventions.
The aggression and then the occupation of Iraq is part of the vision of an American strategy to re-order the situations in the Middle East, and from this perspective, the USA has worked to achieve a number of targets in Iraq, the most important : to control of oil and take advantage of the strategic location of Iraq and to contain and confront hostile states or non-friendly . and promote and ensure the security of Israel .
In spite of achieving some of these goals by the American administration, however, but in the long run, the cost of staying in the territory of Iraq was risen , also the failure of the bet on Iraq as a starting point to impose the American project was revealed and then the policy of US administration towards Iraq since 2010 – in order to avoid further losses – was based on three pillars : to re-regulate the relationship between Baghdad and Washington, rearrange the relationship between the parties of the political process, to withdraw its troops fully from Iraq.
The Iranian regime is the first beneficiary of the US occupation of Iraq and the fall of its regime, which formed an impenetrable bulwark against its regional extension , and it is no secret to anyone that the Iranian regime is the strongest and most prominent regional player in Iraq.
The question in this context is how both the United States and the regime of Iran had translated their influence in Iraq, and which one is the greater threat to the present and future of Iraq ?
The United States is present in Iraq to prevent the collapse of the Iraqi political system which was established after the occupation of Iraq, and to combat terrorism and to this objective, it spread its forces in Iraqi airports as an airport of al- Taji and International Baghdad airport, Habbaniyah airport , Assad base airport , Al-hareer airport in Arbil and Erbil Airport , and to fight terrorism, the United States is maintaining of various military units in Iraq including : Abrams tanks, surface to surface missiles and troop carriers and armored vehicles and all types of aircraft, including reconnaissance planes and armed drones and there are special operations forces, and there are special forces of the international coalition under the auspices of the United States of America.
As for Iran, it is located on the outskirts of Samarra, Baghdad and the level of Iranian influence in Iraq reaches to the level of intervention of “Agaa Mradiagn” the military attaché at the Iranian embassy in Iraq, to the meetings of the joint coordination centers, this attache has an army of Iranian military advisers who identify military targets and issue orders to Iraqi warplanes to bombing it . This does not mean that there is an Iranian American coordination in the joint operations center in Iraq, and the proof is that some of the meetings which held in this center were not attended by the military representative of the United States in Iraq if attended by the Iranian military attache “Agaa Mradiagn.”
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards of various military components etc. in various Iraqi provinces, was one of the influence tools of the Iranian regime in Iraq , and there are many Iranians advisers in the Iraqi defense and interior ministries , but those advisers had broad authority to make contracts in these two ministries, as there is in Iraq, an Iranian drones led by Iranian geophysical forces to provide support for Shia militias in Iraq and they are Iranian regime tools in Iraq , but this time, they are an Iraqi tools and it is on the level of security are represented by the Shiite militias that are not underestimated in terms of its strong negative impact on the Iraqi situation as a whole, and on the media level, there are many Iraqi satellite channels that are financially supported by the Iranian regime to instill Iranian ideas on the ground in Iraq and perhaps the most important idea of velayat-e faqih, which, if it is succeeded , and applied on the ground , Iraq become officially affiliated to the Iranian regime, and there are also many sites “e” on the “Internet” international information network, which is also financed by it to the service of its strategic objectives in Iraq and then its geography.
There is no doubt that Iraq is of strategic importance in the policy of both the United States and the Iranian regime, but the policies experienced by them in Iraq show clearly the apparent contradiction between them , the practice of which may positively and negatively affect on the present and the future of Iraq. We can monitor those policies as follows: At a time when the United States to provide financial aid to Iraq through financial grants provided by it , the Iranian regime worked to promote trade and economic ties with Iraq to get financial gains, especially in the era of former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to ease international sanctions, especially the economic ones imposed on it over its nuclear program. The United States supports Iraqi civil society to establish a democratic society, while the Iranian regime is working to deepen the differences between the people of the Iraqi society, for the demolition of Iraqi civil society and if it is found that community, it should be directly linked with the Iranian ministry of intelligence (Ettelaat).
the United States and its allies are fighting ISIS “Daash,” the war that cost it billions of dollars for Iraq to regain its geographical cohesion, which strongly supports the battle of Mosul against that organization, and with the Iraqi National Guard Act, which is one of the most important paragraphs of the government program for Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, the United States with the reconstruction of the Iraqi military and security forces , and enhance their self-confidence and its combat capabilities and the dismantling of militias, the popular crowd, which committed many crimes against humanity in Diyala and earlier in Tikrit, so the battle to liberate Al-Ramadi from the control of ISIS without the participation of the popular crowd. And maintaining the security of Iraq’s Kurdistan region and its economic prosperity and political development.
And US policies in Iraq is met with Arab support, while the Iranian regime does not care for war against ISIS ,noting that the Iranian regime is with the Iraqi unified political system , but weak to make it easier to control it but also be an Iranian passage to link Tahran , Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut up to the coast of eastern Mediterranean , so the Iranian regime against the battle of Mosul, as they were against the battle to liberate Al-Ramadi because Iran realizes the defeat of ISIS is meant to strengthen US influence in Iraq, and then inactivate this corridor “Alclodor” and it is also against the National Guard law , which allows for the Sunni areas to run their provinces by themselves away from Iranian control , while the Iranian regime is supporting the existence of Shiite militias as a political and security force affiliated to it on the top of Iraqi situation like the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon, and is working to disrupt the political life if Tehran desired so what is evidenced for it, the political and security role Hezbollah plays in favor of the Iranian regime since its inception in the eighties of the last century and until the present day, this party for more than a year is working to disrupt the presidential election as long as is not consistent with the interests of the Iranian regime in Lebanon. Also its leader Hassan Nasrallah publicly adopts the idea of velayat-e faqih. There is no doubt that these Iranian policies in Iraq is not to be welcomed by the Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia and its allies from the Arab and regional countries that confront the Iranian regime militarily through its agents deployed in some Arab countries like the agent Huthi and Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen, and the agent Bashar al-Assad in Syria. Finally, with regard to the policy of the Iranian regime in the Kurdistan region of Iraq it could be argued that the Iranian regime works to raise the Kurdish conflict within the Kurdish House between the Kurdish Altaghier movement ( change) and major Kurdish parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.
Based on what it is mentioned above, it is very clear the depth of strategic conflict of influence between the United States and the Iranian regime in Iraq and the conflict is more like a game theory in international relations, the gains that the United States achieved in Iraq, is the loss of the Iranian regime, and vice versa. For example, the non-ratification of the Iraqi Council of Representatives on the US-Iraqi agreement, noting that it is considered the loss for the United States of America and the gain of the Iranian regime in spite of retaining the strategic framework agreement with Iraq. While the non-participation of militias, the popular crowd at the Battle of Ramadi, is counting a gain to the American administration and the loss for the Iranian regime, based on the principle of profit and loss in the conflict of influence between them, any influence that will earn Iraq, is Iran’s influence or the US, or will be sharing influence between them? Or that the Iraqi people through the national forces in a historic moment will address all the social, economic and political illnesses suffered after 2003? To keep the unity of the Iraqi state, away from both influences, and it works on the establishment of a state of citizen.
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies