After the announcement of purging Iraq from the terrorist organization ISIS and thwarting the attempt to secede the Kurdistan region from Iraq, Iraq has a date with a constitutional entitlement in May next year, which is the opportunity to hold parliamentary elections.
It is scheduled to hold a meeting of the three presidencies next Wednesday to discuss the issue of the upcoming parliamentary elections in Iraq, according to information obtained by the Rawabet Center for research and strategic studies, the elections will be conducted on time and there is no intention to postpone it because the calendar year ends on the first of July 2018.
In light of this, the parliamentary blocs were divided as follows:
First: the Dawa Party is divided into two lists: the list of the rule of law coalition headed by Nuri al-Maliki, and another list has not been announced yet led by Haider Abadi. While al-Maliki’s list is claimed to be the national list, the voters’ compass is heading towards the popularly-popular Abadi list. According to opinion polls for 1,800 people from different provinces of Iraq except for the Kurdistan region, Haider al-Abbadi received 70 percent, while the list of Nuri al-Maliki by 37%, which will be allied with the Dawa party wing Khudair Khuzaie.
Experts and centers of political studies and analysis predict the success of Haider al-Abadi in the upcoming parliamentary elections with a high percentage and a large number of votes, based on the political, economic, military and security achievements achieved in his reign. The expected success of Abadi depends on a large number of votes on his many achievements, and his election campaign which must be strong, solid and high efficient, to show the achievements of this man in all the provinces of Iraq, and depends also on the success of his choice of technocratic figures working with him to build Iraq tomorrow.
Second :The list of Hadi al-Amiri, a list of the popular crowd, some of its leadership has joined the parties in order to participate in the upcoming parliamentary elections while some of them have worked to establish political parties to participate in the elections. This list has received 48% , and it is worth to be noted that some leaders of the crowd may ally with the list of Haider Abadi or the list of the state of law coalition according to their interests and orientations.
Third: Iyad Allawi’s list. This list is supported by 20%. This percentage could increase if its electoral campaign led by a highly qualified electoral office to be able to market its electoral program well.
Fourth: Mr. Muqtada al-Sadr’s list: Mr. Muqtada al-Sadr has decided not to include the former parliamentarians affiliated with him in this election and will adopt a list of civilian candidates that will be his patronage. This list is popular ranging between 900,000 and 1.2 million.
With regard to the fate of former members of Sadr’s list, they are likely to join other electoral lists and this would disrupt the electoral base of the new list of Muqtada al-Sadr.
Fifth: The list of Mr. Ammar al-Hakim, whose center for electoral studies is one of the best polling centers in Iraq. This is because the center starts its work on the day following the results of the parliamentary elections. It collects all the data related to the electoral process and analyzes it to find out the results of it and works to improve it for the upcoming elections.
Sixth: The Sunni blocs: It was scheduled that these blocks to hold its meeting in the fourteenth and fifteenth of this month, to form a large list of those blocks to run in the upcoming parliamentary elections, but this meeting was canceled, and based on the cancellation , the Sunni blocks may be distributed as follows: A large part of them will join the list of Haider Abadi or the list of Iyad Allawi, while some of them prefer to form a purely Sunni list , and the success rate of this list is very weak compared to the success of the blocks that will join Haidar Abadi or Iyad Allawi.
In addition to this, Salim al-Jubouri, Saleh al-Mutlaq and Osama al-Nujaifi seek to form alliances with important Sunni figures in Iraq noting that each of them reached to understandings about dividing the Sunni governorates among them in proportion to their size and weight in it . It should be noted that there are Sunni forces calling for the postponement of the parliamentary elections because the conditions are not conducive to the conduct of it and require the return of the displaced to their homes.
Seventh: The civil and technocratic bloc. This bloc includes a group of media and political figures. According to the poll, it is expected to get 25 seats in the parliament.
Eighth: The Kurds, so far there is no understanding between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Kurdistan Union Party and the movement of change over the format of their participation in the elections, in this context we wonder: Will each party participate alone in it or will they participate within the framework of a Kurdish alliance? It is useful to note here that there is a Kurdish list in the process of development headed by veteran politician Barham Salih, who enjoys in the Kurdistan region of Iraq with great popular support, especially among young people and technocrats, and is respected and appreciated by the federal government in Baghdad.
Based on the above, each list of electoral lists mentioned earlier supported by regional and international bodies, and the composition of these lists are subject to change and they are like the moveable sand now as it is the stage of the formulation of alliances in principle and do not forget that there are important national figures in the Iraqi provinces that their join to this bloc or that constitute a strong indicator of its success in the upcoming parliamentary elections and until the candidacy comes and the formation of electoral lists in a formal manner, and until it is done , there is an international consensus on the support of Haider Abadi to be the man of Iraq in the next stage, and the ball now in his home to restore the Displaced people to their homes and the renewal of electoral cards.
Iraqi Studies Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies