Previous expectations of the Rawabet Center: prospects of the coming war in the Middle East

Previous expectations of the Rawabet Center: prospects of the coming war in the Middle East

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On 22 March, Rawabet Center for Researches and Strategic Studies published an article titled “The Prospects of the Coming War in the Middle East”. The current Iranian-Israeli military escalation demonstrated the fact of its expectations, as well as the insightful view of its writer Dr. Salim Mohammed Al-Zanoun and due to its importance, Rawabet center re-publishes them.
Dr. Salim Mohammed Al-Zanoun *

Executive Summary:
There are a number of factors that indicate the possibility of war in the coming months, involving the United States and Israel, to strike Hezbollah in Lebanon or Iranian capabilities in Syria. At the American level, the Kissinger Doctrine has been adopted to rebalance the status and influence of the United States and the appointment of “Mike Pompeo ” the maker of the theory of military intervention at the expense of diplomacy, and the announcement of negotiations with Korea to calm the front and work elsewhere, in addition to the formation of a US – Gulf Higher Committee to manage the operational aspects in the face of Iran.
At the Israeli level, three types of military exercises were conducted , the first to deal with the intensity of the rockets, the second to protect the home front, the third simulating the war on multiple fronts, and the request from Congress to approve the supply of large quantities of ammunition.
At the Russian level, there is a Russian move to transfer the latest missile systems to the bases of the Hamim and Tartous, and statements of the General Staff that in the event of the threat of the Russian army in Syria, it will not only respond to the source of fire, but will hit US forces at sea, Moscow is not expected to be dragged to a military confrontation with Washington, and could be neutralized if its strategic interests in the region are ensured.

First: the United States.
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Since the middle of 2017, the relationship between President Trump and Henry Kissinger has been strengthened, and appeared in more than one official meeting, and Kissinger began to crystallize a strategic vision and features of policies that serve the top strategy in the first place, rebalancing the status and influence of the United States on the world stage and establishes effective foundations for crisis management , “Kissinger’s doctrine is based on two principles:” the first is to control of oil l which leads to the control of entire nations or a group of nations, “and the second is” playing with fire “to get what it wants and to create chaos whenever possible.

In addition to the dismissal of Secretary of State “Rex Tilerson” and named “Mike Pompeo” with the background of the extreme, and the owner of an important military record and his services in the war on Iraq, and his strong opposition to the nuclear agreement, and preference for US military intervention on the approach of diplomacy and the approval to negotiate with North Korea refers to that Washington is seeking to calm the Korean front to devote to work elsewhere. [2] ).
In the same context, it was agreed to form a US- United Arab Emirates-Saudi coordinating committee to deal with the operational aspects of the joint actions of the three countries against Iran and to stop the Iranian influence in the Gulf and the Middle East, which will be launched next week.
In this context, when considering the influence of the “Kissinger and Pompeo” dominating the joints of decision-making , and the announcement of negotiations with Korea, and the formation of a US-Saudi – UAE high level committee , it is likely to withdraw from the nuclear agreement, the withdrawal is now being discussed in mid-May or at the end of March , the beginning of April, with Readiness to launch a military strike either in Lebanon o r the Iranian capabilities in Syria.
Second: Israel.
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During the current month, the IDF conducted three types of exercises, simulating multiple war models: [4] The first is the training of “Jennifer Cobra”, a joint air defense training with the US Army that simulates Israel’s exposure to attacks with large- scale rockets .
Second: training the “steadfastness”, which trains the home front forces to evacuate the wounded, dead and citizens and deal with hazardous materials, in scenarios simulating a fierce battle against Hezbollah in Lebanon, in addition to challenges coming from the Syrian front, and the Gaza Strip.
Third: training the fighting on several fronts, and was trained in scenarios simulating: Russia’s difficulties in the face of Israeli attacks in Syria, working through coordination or non-coordination with the Russians, and the possibility of infiltration of the war into the depth of Israel.
In addition, Israel asked the US Congress to approve the supply of large quantities of ammunition and diplomatic support for a strike against Hezbollah in Lebanon. [5] However, in coincidence with the announcement of the strike on the Syrian nuclear reactor as a message addressed to Iran, and shortly before the decision of the US administration towards the nuclear agreement [6] .

Third: Russia.
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The batteries of the latest S400 air defense missiles were transferred to the Hamim and Tartous bases . [7] At the same time , the head of the Russian General Staff, Valery Girasimov, warned that “if the Russian army is threatened in Syria, it will not respond to American missiles only , but on the carriers of the navy destroyers and US aircraft [8] .
The possibility of a direct military confrontation between Russia and the United States remains weak. In the event of any strike, Russia will be alerted before a sufficient period of time. Historical experience indicates that Russia could be neutralized in the event of a war by ensuring its strategic interests in the region, noting that the Russian threat of retaliation is only related to a situation in which the Russian army is threatened in Syria and it is unlikely to risk a full military confrontation with Washington.

1. Trump Diplomacy: Ego or Kissinger Style, The Weekly, Center for American and Arab Studies, Week of March 16th, 2018 , available at: gl / jHVzj3
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3. Trump, Saudi Prince & UAE to set up action group against Iran, Debka File, March 20, 2018. Available at: gl / VHCxpc
4. Yaniv Kubovich , Israeli Military Drill Simulates Multi-Front War – With Russia Intervening Over Syria, Ha’aretz, Mar 15, 2018 Available at: goo.gl/h28rS1
5. Whitney Webb , Israel Seeks US Ammunition, Support for Planned Attack on Lebanese Civilian Targets, mint press news, March 2, 2018. Available at: goo.gl/CszHkh
6. Stuart Winer , Defense minister regrets releasing details of attack on Syrian nuclear reactor, Times of Israel. March 21, 2018. Available at: goo.gl/VxxjG1
7. Oriana Pawlyk, Russia Deploys More S-400 Missile Systems to Syria, Military.com, january 26, 2018. Available at: goo.gl/4L4QwT
8. Kathrin Hille , Russia threats military action against US in Syria, Financial Times, March 13, 2018. Available at: goo.gl/LXEvVg

Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies