Researcher Shatha Khalil *
During an emergency session of the Iraqi parliament, which did not realize the importance of taking into consideration the economic and security relationship with America, and the coalition led by Washington, in continuing to fight and defeat the terrorist organization ISIS, it is a common interest for America and Iraq, where parliament saw nothing but satisfying Iran and submitting to its will, following the death of Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Iranian Quds Force, and deputy head of the Popular Mobilization Authority, Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis, with an American air strike in Baghdad last Friday.The session was broadcast directly via the state’s official channel’s screen , in the presence of the head of caretaker government , Adil Abdul- Mahdi , and the representatives approved “ending the presence of any foreign force “on the territory of Iraq, getting started to” cancel the request for assistance “submitted to the international community to fight the terrorist organization” Daesh “, this is what was announced by the parliament speaker Mohammed al-Halbusi.
Meanwhile, US State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagos announced that Washington “is disappointed at the action taken in the Iraqi parliament (Sunday) to start working to end the presence of American forces in Iraq. She indicated that her country is waiting for” more clarification on the legal nature”, for the decision, and hopes Baghdad will reconsider it.
Ortagos said: We strongly urge Iraqi leaders to reconsider the importance of the ongoing economic and security relationship between the two countries, and the continued existence of the global coalition to defeat ISIS.
Direct and indirect repercussions on the Iraqi street by imposing sanctions:
• Some Iraqi governorates witnessed a rise in the exchange rates of the dollar against the Iraqi dinar, hours after Trump’s threat to impose sanctions on Iraq, although the official stock markets in Iraq are not subject to circulation today, Monday, due to the official holiday marking the anniversary of the founding of the Iraqi army, except that some exchange offices in Baghdad and the southern governorates raised the selling price of the dollar, which was settled on the exchange of its selling price officially at (1215) dinars, and the purchase price of the dollar (1205) dinars, according to what the stock market closed on Sunday, but some Iraqi banking offices raised the price, in some Baghdad offices, it reached (1230) and (1250) in the province of Basra , which will lead to the collapse of the Iraqi dinar exchange rate due to the scarcity of foreign currencies, and the currency auction of the Central Bank of Iraq , which depends on the influx of oil dollars, has stopped, which will lead to monetary instability, price turmoil and high prices.
• There is a high possibility that the United States freezes Iraqi oil revenues that pass through the American Federal Bank to Iraq, as well as the possibility of freezing Iraq’s investments in US treasury bonds that amount to (32.7) billion dollars, and freezing Iraq’s other assets in American banks and financial institutions, The diplomatic importance of Iraq will decrease significantly, and economic cooperation may also stop, “for example, the United States’ protection of Iraqi assets from lawsuits, and the ability of Iraqis to conduct transactions in US dollars.”
• A significant decline in the Iraqi cash reserves in the Central `Bank of Iraq, which depend on the flow of oil money, and thus eroded ability to defend the Iraqi dinar exchange rate.
• “Iraq will lose in terms of intelligence and the deep reconnaissance provided free of charge by the United States to Iraq, and training programs for Iraqi forces, which are part of a grant to the US arms sales program to Iraq, and in turn will affect the security sector reform process in terms of new experiences in capacity building and the use of with the new models, this will in turn develop the armed forces, but we will lose this opportunity if the foreign advisory forces leave.”
• Destroying the investment environment in Iraq, and Iraq will become a repellent of investment, and many international companies will refrain from investing in Iraq because of the security, political and economic instability that prevails in the country.
• A big decline in the 2020 budget because of the large drop in public revenues on the one hand, and the stop of international and American institutions from lending to Iraq, which are one of the important sources of financing the Iraqi budget deficit.
• A significant decline in the production and export capacity of crude oil, due to the expected withdrawal of US and foreign companies in general, operating in the fields of licensing contracts, as well as the suspension of projects aimed at developing the gas industry and infrastructure for the Iraqi oil sector.
• A sharp decline in the volume of Iraqi foreign trade for each of the exports and imports funded mainly from oil revenues, which will lead to a huge rise in the levels of prices for goods and services, and to a decline in the country’s revenues from ports and border ports.
• The state’s inability to provide salaries for employees, retirees and those covered by the social protection network that depends 87% on oil revenues, and that it is hoped that these salaries will increase by 12.30 trillion dinars in the 2020 budget to implement government and parliamentary reform packages.
• The United States is expected to abolish the exception granted to Iraq by importing gas and electricity from Iran, which will negatively affect the supply of electricity to citizens.
• The large losses that the Iraqi banking sector will be exposed to due to possible US sanctions.
• Iraq will be required to pay billions of dollars in amounts to the United States in exchange for evacuating its military bases on its soil.
Destroying the Iraqi economy in all its sectors, agriculture, industry, construction and transportation, which will exacerbate its problems.
• We do not forget the great damage that will be caused to the Iranian economy, which is subject to American sanctions, and to circumvent those sanctions by relying on the Iraqi economy, as Iran exports to Iraq goods worth 18-19 billion dollars annually that contribute greatly to reducing the severity of the US sanctions.
• The cease of Iranian oil flow through Iraq , and the decline of the number of Iraqi tourists to Iran, which limits the flow of foreign currencies to Iran, as well as the stop of oil derivatives that Syria imports from Iran through Iraq, as well as the stop of all projects and activities that serve the Iranian economy whether in Iraq or Syria.
According to the special information of the Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies, today, it confirms the exit of the American logistical support that includes engineers, the Locked Martin company and the security companies, all from the Balad’s’ base, the Muthanna base and the Qayyara base, and its withdrawal to Qatar and Erbil, which means that there is no maintenance for aircraft and all military equipment after today. .
And through Twitter tweets to US President Donald Trump, who confirm that no decision, whether on the Iraqi or the Iranian side, should be allowed to twist the arm of America.
The Iraqi parliament’s decision can be considered a kind of appeasement that suggests that Iran has gained something in return for its loss, in addition to that the United States will not lose anything when it divides its military presence between Iraqi bases and others located inside Kurdistan.
Economic Studies Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies